50 Dem-held districts redder than VA

Last night’s election should be a major wake up call. If Republicans can win in a state Joe Biden won by 10 points, then far, far more Democrats are in peril than they’re willing to admit.

The NRCC is smartly expanding its target list this morning and the numbers show why.

If the 12-point swing against Democrats is any prologue of what’s to come, there are 50 Dem-held House Districts redder than Virginia – and we only need 5 to take back the House.

“If Republicans can fight and win in trenches so blue that Joe Biden won them by 10 points, then Republicans will be bringing the House battlefield to a map far wider than Democrats are ready to accept,” said CLF President Dan Conston. “With performances this bad, Democrats should be thinking long and hard about whether they want to lose in McAuliffe-like fashion or retire gracefully.”

District Member Biden Margin
ME-02 Jared Golden -6%
WI-03 OPEN (Kind) -5%
PA-08 Matt Cartwright -4%
TX-15 OPEN (Gonzalez) -3%
MI-08 Elissa Slotkin -1%
NJ-03 Andy Kim 0%
IA-03 Cindy Axne 0%
NV-03 Susie Lee 0%
VA-07 Abigail Spanberger 1%
NY-19 Antonio Delgado 2%
AZ-01 Tom O’Halleran 2%
PA-17 OPEN (Lamb) 3%
CA-10 Josh Harder 3%
OH-13 OPEN (Ryan) 3%
NV-04 Steven Horsford 4%
FL-13 OPEN (Crist) 4%
MI-05 Dan Kildee 4%
VA-02 Elaine Luria 4%
MI-11 Haley Stevens 5%
PA-07 Susan Wild 5%
NY-18 Sean Patrick Maloney 5%
CO-08 OPEN (New Seat) 5%
NJ-05 Josh Gottheimer 5%
NH-01 Chris Pappas 6%
GA-07 Carolyn Bourdeaux 6%
WA-08 Kim Schrier 6%
NJ-11 Mikie Sherrill 7%
MN-02 Angie Craig 7%
FL-09 Darren Soto 7%
IN-01 Frank Mrvan 7%
TX-28 Henry Cuellar 7%
IL-17 OPEN (Bustos) 8%
NC-01 G.K. Butterfield 9%
NH-02 Annie Kuster 9%
OR-05 Kurt Schrader 9%
AZ-09 Greg Stanton 9%
NJ-07 Tom Malinowski 10%
FL-07 Stephanie Murphy 10%
NY-03 Tom Suozzi 10%
AZ-02 OPEN (Kirkpatrick) 11%
CT-05 Jahana Hayes 11%
KS-03 Sharice Davids 11%
CT-02 Joe Courtney 11%
IL-06 Sean Casten / Marie Newman 11%
IL-14 Lauren Underwood 11%
GA-06 Lucy McBath 11%
CA-45 Katie Porter 11%
CA-03 John Garamendi 12%
NY-04 Kathleen Rice 12%
GA-02 Sanford Bishop 12%