House GOP on offense
As noted by Punchbowl, Axios, and NOTUS this week, House Republicans are on offense this cycle:
- Republicans are targeting all 13 Democrats in seats President Trump won in 2024. In total, there are 34 Democrats in seats Kamala Harris won by five points or less.
- There are only three Republican members representing districts won by Kamala Harris. In 2018, there were 23 Republicans in districts Hillary Clinton won, and Democrats targeted them all.
- Demographic trends favor Republicans. President Trump has made MAJOR gains in seats with significant Latino populations. In some districts, there was a 20-point swing toward President Trump from 2020-2024.
Senate Democrats are retiring and it’s expanding the House map.
The bottom line: Democrats have to compete in Trump districts to win. Republicans need to keep Trump voters engaged and turn them out again in 2026.
Democrats have an uphill battle and Republicans are on offense.