New Poll: Gimenez leads DMP in FL-26

A new poll released this morning in The Miami Herald shows Republican Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez leading Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell 47% to 42% in the race for Florida’s 26th congressional district.

Gimenez leads Mucarsel-Powell by double digits among Hispanic voters, 52% to 33%, and 61% to 24% among Cuban voters.

Click here for the full polling memo, and click here to read the story from The Miami Herald.

In case you missed it…

GOP poll says Carlos Gimenez leads Debbie Mucarsel-Powell for Miami congressional seat

Miami Herald

Alex Daugherty


A poll commissioned by a Republican Super PAC shows Republican Miami-Dade Mayor Carlos Gimenez leading incumbent Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in the race for Florida’s 26th congressional district — and, according to the poll, the mayor-turned-challenger has better name recognition than the congresswoman.

The poll, conducted by Meeting Street Insights and shared with the Miami Herald, was commissioned by the Congressional Leadership Fund, a Super PAC dedicated to electing Republicans to the House of Representatives. Gimenez leads Mucarsel-Powell, 47% to 42%, with a 4.9% margin of error.

It’s the first publicly released poll on what is expected to be a general election matchup between Mucarsel-Powell and Gimenez in November. Gimenez must first win the Aug. 18 primary against Miami-Dade firefighter Omar Blanco.

While the Congressional Leadership Fund is a partisan organization, the poll’s results offer some insight into one of the country’s most-watched congressional elections.

The Mucarsel-Powell campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The Gimenez campaign declined to comment.

The poll was conducted in English and Spanish with cellphones and landlines from July 14-18. Four hundred registered voters were polled in the district, which stretches from Miami’s western suburbs to South Miami-Dade and the Florida Keys.

Gimenez leads Mucarsel-Powell by double digits among Hispanic voters, 52% to 33%, and 61% to 24% among Cuban voters.

Murcarsel-Powell was born in Ecuador and is the first member of Congress from South America. Gimenez is Cuban-American.

Mucarsel-Powell, a first-term congresswoman, defeated Republican Carlos Curbelo in 2018. She has fundraising advantage over Gimenez. President Donald Trump lost the district in 2016 by more than 16 points to Hillary Clinton.

Outside groups favoring Democrats have spent millions of dollars on TV ads in the Miami media market planned to run near Election Day, while outside groups favoring Republicans like the Congressional Leadership Fund have yet to do so.

Gimenez first won elected office in 2004 but has never run for a partisan position. He was elected countywide as mayor in 2011, 2012 and 2016.

“Mayor Carlos Gimenez enjoys high name identification and a strong image rating with voters in the district,” the polling memo said. “Fully, 76% know the mayor well enough to have formed an opinion of him, with a majority of voters in the district, 51%, viewing Gimenez favorably.”

Twenty-five percent of voters view Gimenez unfavorably, according to the poll.

The poll indicated that Mucarsel-Powell is less known to voters in the district, with 49% of those polled having an opinion on her while 51% said they don’t know her. Mucarsel-Powell has a positive favorablity rating, with 29% viewing her favorably and 20% viewing her unfavorably.