ICYMI: Alison Esposito Can Beat Pat Ryan in NY-18

Yesterday, the New York Post reported on a recent CLF survey, which found that 25-year NYPD officer and former NY Lieutenant Governor nominee Alison Esposito has a clear path to victory against radical Democrat Pat Ryan in New York’s 18th Congressional District.

Here’s what CLF’s NY-18 poll found:

  1. The strong Republican environment persists from 2022.  
    1. The generic congressional ballot favors a Republican by 3% with Democrats showing soft support for a generic Democrat like they did in 2022.
    2. Governor Kathy Hochul remains very unpopular (-13 net favorable) with 41% of voters viewing her very unfavorably.
    3. 52% of voters disapprove of Joe Biden’s performance as President (43% approve), including 1-in-5 Democrats.
  2.  New York voters are unimpressed with Pat Ryan and ready for an alternative.
    1. 42% of voters say it is time for someone new (36% re-elect Ryan)
    2. Against a generic Republican, the Pat Ryan is tied 43% – 43% (13% undecided).


In case you missed it…

Retired NYPD cop Alison Esposito can beat upstate Dem in key district: House GOP poll
New York Post
By Carl Campanile
November 12, 2023

Retired NYPD cop Alison Esposito has a real shot to pick up a battleground congressional seat for Republicans by toppling upstate Democratic incumbent Rep. Pat Ryan next year, an internal GOP poll claims.

Esposito, who was GOP gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin’s running mate as a lieutenant governor wannabe in 2022, announced her bid against the first-term incumbent in the 18th Congressional District in the Hudson Valley last month.

Before Esposito’s entry into the congressional race, a survey conducted by the Congressional Leadership Fund — the super PAC backing the House GOP majority — found that a Republican candidate would tie with Ryan 43% to 43%, with the remaining 13% undecided.

Forty-two percent of registered voters said it’s time to elect someone new, while 36% supported Ryan’s re-election, with the remainder on the fence, according to the survey.

“New polling data demonstrates that the GOP-favorable political environment and vulnerabilities in Pat Ryan’s standing with voters shows a clear path to victory for 2024,” CLC Vice President Brock McCleary and research coordinator Jack Coogan said in an Aug. 7 memo on the poll’s findings.

“Voters are unimpressed with Pat Ryan and ready for an alternative,” the memo said.

The poll suggests that President Biden, who will be at the top of the Democratic Party’s national ballot, is unpopular in the 18th Congressional District, which includes Orange County and much of Dutchess and Ulster counties.

Only 43% of voters approve of Biden’s performance as president while 52% disapproved — including one in five Democrats, the poll showed.

Democratic New York Gov. Kathy Hochul also is unpopular in the district, with just 41% of voters viewing her favorably, the survey found.

The Congressional Leadership Fund survey in the 18th district was conducted Aug. 1–3 with 400 likely general election voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.89 percentage points.

New York’s most powerful House Republican, upstate Rep. Elise Stefanik, is putting her clout behind Esposito’s bid to unseat Ryan by setting up a joint-fundraising committee as well as being Esposito’s first major endorser.

“As a former New York Police Officer of almost twenty-five years, Alison Esposito is the kind of person who runs towards the disaster to save others, not away from it,” Stefanik told The Post. “We need more of those leaders in Washington. Alison is the only candidate in this race with a strong record of putting the safety and security of New Yorkers first.

“She has what it takes to defeat failed far left Democrat Pat Ryan,” the pol added. “I have full confidence Alison will bring her servant’s heart to Congress to prioritize the needs of Hudson Valley’s hardworking families.

“I am proud to fully endorse Alison and bestow her with the first endorsement of E-PAC in the 2024 cycle,” said Stefanik, referring to her own political action committee.

Esposito said she was pleased that Stefanik and the House GOP were making her race a top priority.

Forty-two percent of registered voters said it’s time to elect someone new, while 36% supported Ryan’s re-election, with the remainder on the fence, according to the survey.

“[Stefanik] has been a steadfast leader for New York and Republicans in Congress, and I look forward to working with her to increase our House Majority and bring commonsense American values back to the Hudson Valley,” the candidate said in a statement. “Join Chairwoman Stefanik in bringing our commonsense wave to New York’s 18th Congressional District.”

Ryan, the former Ulster County executive and Army vet who served in Iraq, won the House seat by fewer than 4,000 votes against former GOP Assemblyman Colin Schmitt in 2022.

He made abortion rights a major issue during his successful bid, first winning a special election in the summer of 2022.

He won while other Democrats went down in defeat in contested races in blue-leaning New York, including neighboring House Campaign Committee Chairman and former Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, who lost to first-term Republican Rep. Mike Lawler.

The Republican pick-up of seats in New York helped the GOP reclaim the House majority.

“New Yorkers are fed up with Pat Ryan and Democrats’ disastrous one-party rule that’s left families dealing with record crime and an out-of-control migrant crisis,” said CLF Communications Director Courtney Parella. “Alison Esposito knows exactly what it takes to protect New York communities and keep families safe, and she will take that expertise to Washington.”

A campaign spokesman for Ryan told The Post of the GOP poll findings,  “We’ve got enough far-right extremists in Congress; what we need are patriots who will rise above the partisanship to deliver for Hudson Valley families.

“Hopefully the next poll from MAGA [House Speaker] Mike Johnson’s Super PAC actually asks voters if they’ll support NYC transplant Alison Esposito who called gun violence ‘a distraction,’ wants a national abortion ban with no exceptions for rape or incest, and stands with insurrectionist traitors who tried to overthrow our democracy,” the rep said in a statement.

In a sign of a competitive race,  Esposito’s campaign said the Ryan camp had mischaracterized her position on abortion.

“Pat Ryan knows he’s in trouble, which is why he’s resorted to lying when he claims that Alison has called for a federal abortion ban. Alison has never advocated for a federal abortion ban. She has always been an advocate of providing more resources and options to women,” an Esposito campaign rep said.

“Like most Americans, she believes in reasonable exceptions.”