MEMO: OH-01 Polling Update

TO: Interested Parties
FROM: Corry Bliss, Executive Director
RE: OH-01 Polling Update
DATE: September 21, 2018

After a week of bad headlines detailing Aftab Pureval’s ongoing ethical and legal cloud, CLF’s latest polling brings more bad news.

Earlier this month, Congressional Leadership Fund released a polling memo detailing positive movement in the KY-06 race, where Andy Barr is now leading 49% to 45% after trailing Amy McGrath prior to summer and fall advertising (51% McGrath, 38% Barr).

This week, new data in OH-01 shows a similar trajectory. After initially being locked in a tie race in late August, Steve Chabot now leads Democrat Aftab Pureval by 7%—with Pureval’s negatives surging 16% overall and doubling with Independents.

Last month, CLF began television and digital advertising highlighting Aftab Pureval’s hypocritical D.C. work history, his liberal positions and the ongoing investigation into his campaign. CLF has also opened a field office and initiated a paid door program.

The full polling memo from Randall Gutermuth of AmericanViewpoint follows.

The following outlines the key findings from a survey of likely November voters in OH CD-1 commissioned by CLF. Interviews were conducted September 18-20, 2018, with data trended from a survey conducted August 20-22, 2018. N=400 interviews were conducted in both surveys, with approximately 44% of interviews conducted with a cell phone sample we can’t reach on a landline. The margin of error is +/- 4.9% at the 95% confidence level.

Congressman Chabot’s lead has grown.

  • From our first survey, taken before CLF began advertising, to now, Congressman Chabot’s race has gone from being a tie to leading 46%-39%.

The impact of CLF’s ads against Pureval are clearly significant in helping Congressman Chabot.

  • Aftab Pureval’s favorable to unfavorable ratio has gone from 39/19 last month to 39/35 today. Pureval’s unfavorable ratings have doubled with Independents during this time.

The campaign contact measurements further underscore the impact of CLF’s efforts.

  • 73% of voters have seen, read or heard something recently regarding Aftab Pureval. Pureval’s unfavorable rating increases to 44% among those who have seen, read or heard something regarding him.
  • Among those who have seen, read or heard something regarding both candidates (50% of the electorate), Congressman Chabot extends his lead to 51%-39%.

Any momentum that Pureval may have been building has clearly been halted by CLF’s efforts here, and if these efforts continue, Congressman Chabot’s reelection chances are high.