Hakeem Jeffries’ dizzying spin
Hakeem Jeffries told the Washington Post over the weekend Democrats would win back control of the House and the map favors Democrats.
Two very bold statements given Democrats’ record low approval ratings (nevermind Jeffries’ track record of incorrect predictions). But let’s put all that aside for now and focus on the realities of the congressional map:
- There are only three Republican members representing districts won by Kamala Harris. (In 2018, there were 23 Republicans in districts Hillary Clinton won, and Democrats targeted them all.)
- Republicans are targeting all 13 Democrats in seats President Trump won in 2024. In total, there are 34 Democrats in seats Kamala Harris won by five points or less.
- Demographic trends favor Republicans. President Trump has made MAJOR gains in seats with significant Latino populations. In some districts, there was a 20-point swing toward President Trump from 2020-2024.
- Senate Democrats are retiring and it’s expanding the House map. Last week, Chris Pappas announced he is vacating a competitive congressional seat to run for Senate.
- Hakeem Jeffries is ignoring his own party’s internal drama.
The bottom line: Trust Hakeem Jeffries at your own peril (which Democrats should feel free to do).